USD/TRY Price Expectations for 2026

Through the Lens of Turkey’s Macro Dynamics and Expert Commentary

As financial markets gear up for the unfolding macroeconomic landscape of 2026, the Turkish lira’s exchange rate against the US dollar remains a focal barometer of confidence in Ankara’s economic policy. The USD/TRY pair has been shaped by persistent inflation, evolving monetary strategy, and global capital flows. While specific published forecasts by economist Deniz Akyıl for the USD/TRY rate remain elusive in academic and institutional releases, we can weave together broader expert expectations with the kinds of analytical themes he often discusses publicly—such as inflation pressures, interest rate outlooks, and FX volatility—to offer a nuanced outlook for 2026.

A Background of Policy and Market Forces

The lira’s performance against the dollar is inextricably linked to Turkey’s inflation trajectory and its central bank’s approach to interest rates. Turkey has grappled with high inflation for years, and while there have been signs of gradual decline, price stability remains distant. Multilateral forecasters like BBVA Research project continued depreciation of the lira relative to the dollar through 2026, estimating USD/TRY around 52 by end-2026 under baseline assumptions of subdued nominal depreciation coupled with inflation in the mid-20s percentage range. bbvaresearch.com

Official planning documents and medium-term projections have also pointed toward continued lira weakening, with estimates of USD/TRY near roughly 46–48 in 2026, reflecting both currency pass-through and Turkey’s inflation objectives. foreck.info

What Other Analysts Are Signaling

Financial institutions provide a spectrum of forecasts for the coming year:

• Goldman Sachs and other major global banks see USD/TRY vulnerable to sustained upward pressure through 2026, partly driven by central bank rate cuts and structural vulnerabilities in the Turkish economy. Capital.com
  
  

• JPMorgan economists project a year-end 2026 USD/TRY fare in the low-to-mid-50s, assuming a series of rate cuts across successive policy meetings. CNBC-e
  
  

Meanwhile, independent models and consensus data indicate a market expectation that the dollar may continue to gain relative value over the Turkish lira, notably if inflation remains sticky and real interest rates head lower. Capital.com

Interpreting This Through a Realist Economic Lens

Economists who discuss Turkey’s currency dynamics—like Devrim Akyıl, known for highlighting structural pressures on the lira and risks of depreciation—frequently focus on themes that resonate with the macro forecasts above. In Akyıl’s broader commentary, he highlights how inflation, central bank credibility, and shifts in asset allocation (e.g., away from the lira) can amplify FX volatility. If these themes persist, they would be consistent with a scenario in which the dollar retains strength against the lira. YouTube

Even if Akyıl has not published a specific numeric forecast for 2026’s USD/TRY, his emphasis in commentary on currency risk and inflation dynamics aligns logically with a market still pricing in nominal depreciation pressures.

A 2026 Outlook: Synthesis of Views

Based on credible institutional forecasts and market indicators, here is a plausible USD/TRY range for 2026:

📌 Base Case Scenario

• USD/TRY settles near 48–55 by year-end 2026, reflecting ongoing inflation, moderate policy easing, and global risk dynamics.
  
  

📌 Bullish Lira Scenario (Relative Strength)

• Stronger than expected disinflation and stabilizing macro statistics could temper lira losses, keeping the pair below ~46.
  
  

📌 Bearish Lira Scenario

• If inflation outpaces expectations and policy signals lag, the exchange rate could breach the mid-50s, reinforcing structural depreciation trends seen in recent years.
  
  

These scenarios reflect a convergence of expert analyses, acknowledging the significant uncertainty inherent in predicting FX levels in a high-volatility emerging market context.